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Better data

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Japan saw stronger than expected (and positive) growth in the third quarter. This does not avoid a technical recession because technically there is no single definition of what a recession is. It does, however, avoid two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
  • Chinese trade data showed less weakness in import demand than had been feared. There is a complication with nominal trade data – commodity prices react to currency moves, but finished goods prices are less likely to react, creating a real-nominal rift when currencies move.
  • Euro area third quarter GDP is due to be revised. The expectation is for a growth rate that is close to trend (circa 1.75%) and the Euro area should continue this pace of growth in 2016.
  • UK industrial and manufacturing output are scheduled. Ordinarily this is not a major focus, but with (generally unfounded) angst about an industrial recession in the global economy the data may attract a little more attention than normal.