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Life after December

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Time to pay attention to Fed speak. Not to gauge the timing of a rate increase (December) but to gauge the pace of tightening thereafter. The Fed's Bullard indicated everyone on the FOMC wanted a gradual pace, but there was disagreement as to what "gradual" meant.
  • Chinese trade data for October was weaker than expected. Some care is required in interpreting the dollar based data, as the progressive decline in the Euro and the yen against the dollar may have had some impact on export dollar values (but not volumes).
  • German trade data has been showing better trends within the Euro area as that economy recovers, but less strength elsewhere. The US should continue to offer some support, but emerging markets are a weakness.
  • Japanese earnings data were OK compared to market expectations, but were not really OK when compared to what the Japanese economy actually needs.