Follow Paul Donovan

It's a rate rise, not a lift off

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The Fed offered comment so synchronised it could have won awards on Strictly Come Dancing. The idea of a December rate increase is being pretty clearly communicated. This is not a "lift off". "Lift off" implies a rocket like trajectory. What we are getting is something far more gentle in terms of tightening.
  • It is the turn of the Bank of England today, with their data dump into the markets. The labour market has exhibited some signs of tightening, but third quarter GDP has been softer (although the ONS has been known to revise away entire recessions in its data reviews).
  • US unit labour cost data and associated productivity figures are due. The fluctuations of GDP statistics create noise around these figures, but they are important – around 60% of US inflation comes from domestic labour costs alone, so the trend (if not any single figure) is highly relevant.
  • The Euro area is somewhat sidelined from events today. ECB President Draghi is speaking, but everyone knows what he wants to do, so his remarks are only likely to be interesting if he makes reference to the Fed.