Follow Paul Donovan

A swarm of Fed speakers

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • There is sentiment from the service sector today, and the expectations are generally relatively positive. Like all sentiment data there is a health warning, and generally service sentiment has a lower weight in the markets than does manufacturing.
  • Some have been inclined to contrast service and manufacturing sentiment and worry about an "industrial recession". This is overdone. Currency moves have impacted nominal values of industrial output in some cases through price changes, but real values do not seem to be at risk.
  • US trade data is also scheduled, with commodity price shifts and currency shifts both playing a part. The tendency to price to market (hold overseas prices stable, and have currency fluctuations impact profit margins) has a bearing on the value of imports and exports.
  • There is a veritable swarm of Fed speakers today, including Chair Yellen, NY Fed President Dudley, and (after markets close) vice Chair Fischer. The last is speaking in the bohemian surroundings of the National Economists Club. The message from the FOMC was relatively direct. Comments today are likely to be in that vein.