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Black Friday preparation day

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • US markets are closed for Black Friday preparation day. However the traditional celebration of the shopping mall does not perhaps have the power that it once had – more sales take place online nowadays (around 9%), and Black Friday is not necessarily a good guide to future
    consumer behaviour.
  • The intention of the US Federal Reserve to raise rates next month is unlikely to have much of an impact on the consumer right now, not least because awareness of this imminent policy tightening is probably fairly limited. We may see a rise in spending in the wake of the first hike.
  • Euro area M3 money supply is due. Normally this is not a huge focus, but the growth of M3 does exceed the nominal and current trend rates of GDP growth in the Euro area. With more quantitative policy being urged by the ECB president, this may all be pertinent.
  • The UK government offered a little more fiscal stimulus than had been anticipated yesterday, with some focus on security spending. This is a pattern that is likely to be replicated elsewhere in Europe in the months ahead.