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Data - do we really trust it?

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • US GDP is due, and expected to be revised somewhat higher reflecting a bigger inventory contribution. That of course raises questions about growth in the fourth quarter. More generally, as we comment in today's Macro Keys, there are reasons to believe data is becoming increasingly unreliable.
  • One problem is survey based data, towards which markets pay an undue degree of reverence. We have consumer confidence figures from the US today.
  • Germany is also giving GDP data and sentiment data, though on the latter it is business sentiment that is coming out. The prominence of the refugee crisis in the German media may have a bearing here, although to date the impact seems to have been contained.
  • Several Bank of England officials are to speak, in the wake of a suggestion from the Deputy Governor that financial markets may have overreacted to the dovishness of the Bank's outlook.