Follow Paul Donovan

Managing Expectations

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • It is wrong to characterise central bankers as "hawks" or "doves"; in a complex, multifaceted world of central bank policy, this is too binary a decision. Nonetheless Fed President Rosengren tends to be biased towards the accommodative, and is now hinting at a December rate rise.
  • There are a handful of ECB speakers due today – their comments may be of interest in putting the ECB's policy into the context of a clear US intention to tighten. However there is the strong headwind of "vigilance" which has influenced expectations.
  • Consumer prices in China moderated (food was a little softer) – this is essentially a local Chinese concern. Greek inflation may offer some academic interest as economists try to disentangle the electronic "drachma" Euro from the physical "hard" Euro.
  • The US has import and export price data – pricing to market strategies and the weaker commodity complex should be on display in these figures. French and Italian industrial production may raise a flicker of interest with markets exhibiting some unnecessary angst about that sector.