Preferential trade gets the go ahead
- The Trans Pacific Partnership on trade has been agreed, at least by heads of government. There is the minor matter of getting it cleared by parliaments and (especially) the US Congress. The deal is a preferential deal, penalising (relatively) those excluded from its terms.
- Coincidentally US trade data is due out today. The issue here is the real versus nominal distinction. If US exporters hold overseas prices constant then the value of their exports declines with dollar strength, but the (GDP relevant) volume does not.
- Two Fed speakers are on hand to entertain markets today – George and Williams. We have heard a great deal from Williams, reading the FOMC approved script of "rate hikes are coming". Changes to that script are likely to be minor, if any.
- UK industrial and manufacturing data are due, but not especially interesting to financial markets. Draghi of the ECB is speaking as well, although he may struggle to find reasons to advocate additional accommodation in the recent data flow.