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Payrolls Friday! (Curb your enthusiasm)

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • US employment report Friday!!! Except it probably does not matter much!!! There is a growing sense that the US Fed has made up its mind to raise in December, and the data flow between now and then has less policy influence.
  • As ever, watch the revisions. There will be revisions to past payrolls, probably raising past payrolls. The September data could be a little softer on education hiring payback, in our view, with the unemployment rate dropping.
  • Japan's consumer appears to have emerged from hiding, with stronger household spending. The BoJ inflation expectations survey was subdued -though it is worth noting that both consumers and markets are generally useless at predicting inflation. If you want an inflation prediction, ask an economist.
  • China announced measures to stimulate housing demand and to stimulate auto demand. There is inevitability about this. As the (low commodity intensive) financial sector stops boosting growth and starts detracting, China's authorities will obviously turn to traditional (higher commodity intensive) means of raising growth.