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A mixed haul

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • US consumer price inflation for September is due. This is still impacted by a drag from the lower oil price, but the core inflation is instructive as an indication of where headline inflation is likely to end up in the coming months.
  • The Fed's Beige Book signalled that the US labour market was tightening further, albeit with wage pressures confined to the most skilled sectors. This seems to challenge the superficial analysis of the US employment report – it may be that lower hiring reflects a lack of suitable candidates.
  • The Euro area has a handful of ECB speakers on the agenda. For the most part Euro area data has been coming in OK (though auto sector problems have weighed on Germany).Arguing a credible deflation threat would be incredible. This suggests no increase to quantitative policy.
  • The Greek parliament is due to vote on the latest bail-out package. No problem is anticipated, but it is a salutatory reminder of the importance of political risks and structural challenges in financial markets.