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How tight is the US labour market?

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The Fed's Beige Book of economic anecdote is looked to for tales from the labour market. There is evidence of semi-skilled labour tightening (more semi-skilled workers are getting pay rises, for instance), raising questions about whether the recent payrolls is a signal of a jobs or a labour shortage.
  • The UK is all about labour too (labour being the dominant driver of long term inflation trends). The labour market has been seeing some rising wage pressures recently, raising real incomes and costs for companies.
  • The Euro area provides us with prices data from France, Spain and Italy – all still reflecting the impact of the oil price decline last year. This will start to fade from the data from October onwards, pushing up headline inflation (the ECB pointedly ignores core inflation and focuses on the headline).
  • China's domestic inflation pressures were on display with the resilience of service sector inflation, but the headline rate was brought lower with a moderation of food prices. China, of course, is not a noted exporter of food and this has little global relevance.