The US Federal Reserve was broadly unchanged in its policy statement overnight - a balance of tweaks leaving the central case of a June tightening intact. Today we get household formation data - markets are not likely to pay too much attention, but that is misguided. Better household formation will drive growth higher.
Oil prices remain subdued; our oil team revised down their oil price estimate for this year. German consumer prices today will show oil's impact as a relative price change, not as a general (deflation) price change. Relative oil price moves and strong employment data are a clear stimulus for Germany.
Japanese retail sales were unexpectedly weak again - these are nominal figures, so oil prices have an impact (though yen denominated oil price moves are less dramatic); however the consumption tax increase should raise nominal retail sales.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates unchanged, but removed the tightening bias from the language of its accompanying policy statement. We do not see a rate cut however, as the stimulus of lower oil prices should make that unnecessary.