Follow Paul Donovan

Mr Draghi's one big idea

| Tags: Paul Donovan

  • This week has always been about Mr Draghi's relentless pursuit of his one big idea (quantitative policy). Nowotny of the ECB commented over the weekend that there were limits on what the ECB could do to stimulate growth, but that will not stop quantitative policy.
  • We expect a EUR1tn bond buying plan (it may not all be sovereign bonds) along with a good chance that national central banks are required to take the risk of their own sovereign debt - and extraordinary circumstance, reflecting the political realities the ECB has to deal with.
  • The Swiss National Bank's actions last week may make things worse for the ECB. If SNB-induced market volatility increases balance sheet pressure for Euro area banks (reducing their willingness to lend) it makes things worse for the Euro area.
  • The US has the Martin Luther King holiday today. Swiss producer price data will be overlooked as predating last week's currency move. Japanese consumer confidence improved a little, industrial production data remained negative.