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Sentiment and confidence

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  • A new Scottish opinion poll shows a 1% difference between unionists and independence supporters. Meanwhile Bank of England Governor Carney is to speak - he has said that the Bank has contingency plans in the event of Scottish independence, but will not say what they are.
  • Japanese M3 money supply growth came out at 3% yoy - not terribly consistent with the idea of 2% inflation and reasonable growth. Consumer confidence is scheduled for release, coming in the wake of some evidence of weakness in consumer spending.
  • US small business confidence is scheduled. The data is problematic, but the best that we have, and the role of small businesses in creating employment is critical. The US consumer is showing reasonable strength, suggesting a relatively tight labour market.
  • The Euro area has little to divert attention. ECB speakers are due, with comments recently suggesting that the central bank believes that there are limits to what monetary policy can achieve in the absence of some kind of government action.

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