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Fed hawks soar

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  • Ahead of Friday's US employment report (forecast to be strong) investors are likely to increase the intensity of their focus on the timing of Fed hikes. The Fed's Fisher was sounding especially hawkish in a weekend interview. Evans is scheduled today.
  • The ECB, which meets Thursday, is not sounding hawkish. Today's sentiment data in the Euro area is not likely to support anything other than a dovish policy position, though the real problem is in the divergence of experience, not the aggregate number.
  • Credit data and house price data from the UK may help to shape investor expectations about the timing of the UK rate increase - concerns about rapid credit expansion play a larger role than inflation in the debate about rate increases.
  • New Zealand seems to be happily embracing a time warp an living in around 1985. The unilateral Plaza Accord of the central bank, announced last week, has been validated with data showing the RBNZ intervened in currency markets last month.

Listen to the audio version of this briefing.