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0.2 and all is right with the world?

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  • China's unofficial PMI of manufacturing sentiment ticked up from 50.3 to 50.5. The fact that markets reacted to this tells us more about markets than it does about the health of the Chinese economy. The Chinese authorities seem to be exhibiting some concern, reportedly easing mortgage standards.
  • Euro area flash PMI sentiment for manufacturing and services is expected to come in signalling as steady, low pace of expansion. It is not the aggregate that matters so much as the divergence beneath the surface and especially the performance of France and Italy.
  • UK data includes mortgage approvals. The Bank of England has already started to tighten policy (through tighter mortgage credit regulation rather than interest rate increases), and the impact of that in today's data may be a factor in determining whether we get a November rate increase or not.
  • Yesterday's US Fed speakers had a somewhat dovish tone to them (though in the case of Kocherlakota this is not a surprise). We have two more speakers today, plus the Maarkit PMI manufacturing sentiment number.

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