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No, but not no change

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  • Tartan tracking - With 31 of the 32 districts reporting the pro-unionist "no" vote has won in Scotland. Predictions are for a 55:45 vote split. The status quo in Scotland is not going to remain, as there will be devolution of further powers to the Scottish parliament.
  • Markets have limited interest in devolution (setting corporation tax rates and VAT rates are not likely to be devolved). Investor focus is the Bank of England; we reiterate our view of a November rate hike. The impact of changing Scottish politics on the 2015 UK General election and the possibility of a 2015 EU referendum may be a focus.
  • The G20 group of finance ministers and central bankers (absent the UK finance minister and central bank governor) gather in Australia for what is doubtless a very worthy meeting. The list of G20 accomplishments would comfortably fit into a single tweet. Investors are unlikely to pay too much attention.
  • The US Federal Reserve's Janet Yellen was keen to point out that dissent on the FOMC is not the same thing as outright rebellion. This is a reminder that the Fed is, perhaps, a little more democratic than under the Greenspan regime, and investors should listen to the full membership not just the Chair.

Listen to the audio version of this briefing.