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Afore ye go?

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  • Tartan tracking - final Scottish polls showed a small margin for the unionist "no" vote; the difference is too small to be certain. Post a "yes" vote the 'Scottish sort code scramble' would be the first concern; bank depositors try to find out where their money is domiciled (and move it). The Bank of England would delay tightening.
  • A clear "no" vote could impact the 2015 General Election, and through that the possibility of an EU referendum. The Bank of England would not delay tightening. A Québécois scenario of a narrow "no" / possible future referendum would add risk to the Scottish economy, which could impact BoE timing.
  • In the real world, the US Fed did largely what we expected, keeping key parts of the prose of the statement intact. The point chart, the most misinterpreted use of punctuation marks in modern time, did get some investors excited about tightening. Details of how to manage the balance sheet were revealed.
  • Chinese house price growth slowed again. It is worth remembering that most Chinese do not have mortgages, so the main economic consequence of this should be viewed though the impact on construction. Japan's trade deficit was still a deficit, but a smaller deficit than feared.
    Listen to the audio version of this briefing.