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Scotland, Spain, Stimulus and SUVs

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  • Tartan tracking - Scotland's banks suggested that they had suitcases packed and ready, next to the front door, and would be prepared to move in the event of a Scottish "yes" vote. The latest poll gave a small lead to the "no" vote.
  • UBS has two publications related to Scotland today. The Macro Keys looks at Catalonia and Spain, and the UK Economic Perspectives looks at the likely debt burden that an independent Scotland would face (even if it repudiates UK debt, it still has a debt burden).
  • Euro area industrial production is due, and might actually be positive. ECB president Draghi was lauding the benefits of the stimulus that the ECB's balance sheet expansion suggests - unfortunately real stimulus still requires the banks to intermediate.
  • The US is all about the consumer. Of course it is. The US is always all about the consumer. Retail sales should be robust for August, aided by autos. The lower cost of gasoline (lowering the cost of running the family fleet of SUVs) should boost the Michigan consumer sentiment.

Listen to the audio version of this briefing.