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The rate rises are coming

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  • Tartan tracking - another opinion poll gives the "no" (unionist) vote a six point lead, causing sterling to rally. If currency markets can sell off on a single opinion poll, perhaps the idea of rallying on a single opinion polls is not as absurd as it would appear.
  • Bank of England Governor Carney was being rather disparaging about Scotland being able to use the pound. He also suggested that UK rates would rise "by the spring". In the real world his remarks received as much attention as his remarks normally do (i.e. none).
  • Australian unemployment data came out very strong with a sharp drop in the unemployment rate. We do not think the headline number is credible as to scale (last month's unusually weak report was also not especially credible), but we do think there is an element of job creation in Australia.
  • China's inflation was in line and uninteresting. The US is offering very little to distract investors today, and market participants seem content to idly speculate about the possibility of changes in the Fed statement next week. Fantasy Fed watching is not proper economics, of course.

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