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Political noise that might matter

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  • French President Hollande reshuffled his cabinet, with the departing economics minister giving vent to strong criticism of fiscal austerity. Coming a week after ECB President Draghi's comments about the need for stimulus, the internal divisions in the second economy of the Euro area are relevant.
  • The second Scottish independence debate was deemed to have been a victory for the pro-independence Salmond. However, markets remain complacent in the face of the pro-union opinion poll lead. This, perhaps, ignores some of the economic risks around a pro-union win.
  • Russo-Ukrainian talks take place, with EU participation, in the wake of the Ukrainian president dissolving the parliament and calling for new elections in October. Market expectations around the talks are relatively low.
  • US consumer confidence is due, with the normal caveats about the tendency of confidence data to overreact. Today's data is expected to pull back a little, bringing it into line with other surveys that have been positive, but not as positive as the Conference Board figures.

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