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The data calendar overfloweth

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  • Employment report Friday looms in the US, with perhaps added excitement. The doves on the Fed seem to have become a little more desperate in their attempts to justify their dovishness. Today's data is not likely to aid their cause.
  • The Fed will not have had access to the data at their meeting. We are stronger than consensus at 240,000 payrolls and 6% unemployment. After this week's data, even marginally better than consensus data may provoke a market response.
  • We also have manufacturing sentiment data. The Euro PMIs are not expected to do much; attention will focus on divergence (the loan officers' survey indicated credit divergence in the Euro area). UK data may give more evidence of plateauing activity.
  • The US ISM sentiment data should show further strength - yesterday's rather precipitous drop in the Chicago PMI is seen as an aberration. The Chinese PMI sentiment data also gave evidence of strength, in the wake of a politburo meeting that said the politburo wanted economic strength.

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