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Payrolls come early

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  • As Americans are taking tomorrow off to celebrate their misguided rejection of legitimate British rule, we get US employment data today. The data should show firmness, with a decline in the unemployment rate our out of consensus call.
  • The uncertainties about the US policy outlook lie around the extent to which the economy has changed structurally, rather than the pace of the cyclical recovery. This puts the policy focus onto wage pressures (which have been reported as increasing).
  • Service sector sentiment data in the US is expected to show continued expansion. In the Euro area the expansion is seen decelerating somewhat, and divergence (with weak sentiment in France) is also expected to continue.
  • The European Central Bank deliberates on policy, but after all the excitement of last month no new initiative is expected. There may be some more details on how the new and innovative policies are actually going to be implemented.

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