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  • The Fed minutes confirmed October is the likely end date of quantitative policy. The news has not exactly surprised markets. The question is "what next?", to which the answer is "interest rate hikes". If we just knew the timing of those.
  • The Bank of England concludes its policy meeting with no interest rate hikes yet. However, with the UK economy performing above trend there is a limit to how long real rates can stay this negative.
  • Chinese export and import data disappointed the consensus but were broadly in line with our view (imports actually a little stronger). The recovery is on track to achieve 7% to 7.5% growth (as Xi wants), but is likely to have a more domestic flavour to it.
  • The Euro area has the ECB monthly bulletin. Most ECB members now seem content to admit that the deflation scare was just that - a scare - but Portugal is likely to publish consumer price deflation today.

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