Follow Paul Donovan

Demonstrating the dangers of trusting data

| Tags: Paul Donovan

  • This US ISM yesterday gave a wonderful (if unintentional) demonstration of the dangers of putting too much emphasis on single data points - coming out with three variations of their manufacturing confidence data in a single morning.
  • The final reading of the US manufacturing sentiment was basically consensus, and I the number can be trusted indicates reasonable expansion. The Euro area sentiment data was less positive, although also less divergent than expected.
  • German disinflation in the consumer price measure was enough to make all but certain the idea that the ECB will ease at this week's meeting. The release of Euro flash consumer price inflation today is unlikely to add too much one way or the other.
  • Chinese sentiment data was nicely confusing overnight - the service sector performing more strongly, but the Markit manufacturing estimate being revised lower. The Reserve Bank of Australia (which has a vested interest in Chinese data) was perhaps relatively optimistic on growth, however.

Listen to the audio version of this briefing.