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European pseudo leadership

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  • The EU leaders meet today and tomorrow, in search of leadership (or, perhaps, pseudo leadership). The vexed issue of who is to be the next EU Commission President is up for debate. Investors of course are on the edges of their seats, in tense anticipation of the thrilling drama of it all.
  • Bank of England governor Carney is scheduled to speak, but markets do not tend to listen to his comments with a great deal of reverence. More important is the Bank of England Financial Stability report, which has the potential to comment on housing.
  • The Bank of England's approach to financial stability may be a lead indicator for global monetary policy tightening. In the wake of quantitative policy (globally) central banks may consider financial oversight an equal partner with interest rates in controlling monetary conditions.
  • The US offers some relevant data in the wake of a somewhat weaker than expected Q1 GDP (the surprises were healthcare). Personal income and spending includes the PCE deflator - a favoured measure of inflation at the Fed - which we think will show signs of rising.

Listen to the audio version of this briefing.