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Market bubbles and stimuli

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  • Service sector sentiment from the European time zone forms the basis of the data calendar today. The expectation is not, frankly, terribly exciting - more of the same, with a slight acceleration in the Euro area and stable strong growth in the UK.
  • The weaker Q1 GDP caused our US team to revise their annual average growth estimate for 2014 to 2.7% (was 3.0%), though the momentum for the remainder of the year remains strong. We get trade data out today.
  • Our China economic team put out a note highlighting the risks that the housing market present to the growth outlook, though noting that policy has the potential to offset that. There are reports that the Chinese railway stimulus measure has been increased for the third time this year.
  • Japan is off celebrating Green Day (punk rock is optional), but tonight the Bank of Japan minutes should be published - covering the policy reaction to the consumption tax increase.

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