Follow Paul Donovan

Europe and Ascension, US GDP descension

| Tags: Paul Donovan

  • European has the Ascension Day holiday (one of those holidays where no one knows who is actually working and who is not). Yesterday saw bond markets strengthen across Europe, seemingly on short covering - this may be a focus for those markets open today.
  • Japanese retail sales predictably fell in April, in the wake of the consumption tax increase. Unpredictably, Japanese retail sales fell by more than predicted, perhaps indicating problems beyond the consumption tax increase.
  • The Bank of England's Weale has (effectively) been endorsing the UBS view of UK rates, advocating rate increases of a quarter point a quarter in an article in the Financial Times. Weale is known to be hawkish.
  • The US revises its GDP guess for the first quarter (this will be the first of many, many revisions of course). We see a -0.4% annualised rate, driven by a downward revision to inventories. To the extent this inventory position corrects, it is supportive for post Q1 US growth.

Listen to the audio version of this briefing.