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Consumers and confidences

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  • US retail sales should show strength (we forecast a consensus 0.4% mom figure for April), with the numbers somewhat flattered by the rise in gasoline prices. Nonetheless the underlying data indicates a consumer alive, well and in the shopping mall.
  • US NFIB small business survey data is troubling, as there is evidence of bias in the numbers, but it is one of the few small business surveys that we have. Small business employment versus investment decisions are of interest.
  • UK BRC retail sales were strong in April, albeit obviously distorted by the timing of Easter. The data suggests reasonable strength on the trend however, and comes ahead of the Bank of England inflation report tomorrow.
  • German ZEW business confidence data is scheduled, and is expected to show a little moderation. However, this is unlikely to be influential in shaping expectations about Euro area monetary policy, which is the main market focus.

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