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Payback Friday

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  • Payback Friday with the US employment data expected to show a diminishing impact from the weather related distortions of the start of the year. With the ISM data signalling employment strength we are above consensus in forecasting 250k on non-farm payrolls.
  • Fed governor Stein has resigned, leaving just three of the seven gubernatorial chairs filled at the Fed. Only one of the three chairs is occupied by an economist. Worse, the other two chairs are occupied by lawyers. O tempora o mores.
  • The ECB opted to follow economic good sense not peer pressure, and not change policy. However, because spin can influence sentiment and sentiment matters to economics, Draghi was careful not to sound complacent about deflation.
  • Japan marks the one year anniversary of the massive monetary stimulus that has done so little to boost the domestic Japanese economy so far. We believe that the Bank of Japan will be under pressure to do more.
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