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Economists are ever more overworked

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  • The calendar is groaning under the weight of an immense number of economic and policy events. Japan, the Euro Area and the US all have releases that will be important in shaping future policy and economic expectations. There are not enough bullet points to do today justice.
  • Japanese industrial production and sentiment were weaker, with exports being blamed for the former. Of course exporters seem to be prioritising profit over production. The BoJ semi-annual forecast changes are due, with inflation forecasts to be closely watched.
  • Euro inflation is expected (economists do not expect deflation, because economists know what they are talking about). We also have the Euro area bank lending survey, which is perhaps the more important indicator (credit stability is an important condition for economic recovery).
  • US GDP is forecast weaker than consensus, but mainly on inventory and export data (the domestic demand picture is OK). The Fed is expected to continue blithely on with its scaling back of quantitative policy. Employment cost data should not be ignored as a possible indicator for future Fed policy.

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