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Fed speakers on all sides

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  • Anglo-Saxon inflation forms the main part of the day's data releases. In the UK the consensus is for a slight moderation in consumer prices. The timing of Easter led to a drop in BRC retail sales (yoy), but generally moderate inflation is seen supporting the UK consumer.
  • Yesterday US consumers demonstrated their willingness to rev up the family fleet of SUVs and drive 200 yards to the nearest mall. Consumer price inflation is seen just above consensus at 0.2%.
  • No fewer than four Fed speakers will be bombarding markets with messages, including Fed Chair Yellen. Shockingly, it is possible for two economists to look at identical data and disagree on the policy response; the issue of divisions within the Fed may be important this year.
  • Japanese economic minister Amari indicated that weakness in the Nikkei is caused by the Ukraine (sic). Chinese credit growth came in stronger than markets expected, suggesting PBoC policy is filtering through. The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes maintained a neutral stance.
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