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Getting cross

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  • The Ukraine is attracting headlines again, with the government giving pro- Russian militants until 0600 GMT today to leave occupied buildings. As with the Crimean situation, the main market concern is whether sanctions are broadened from personal to economic sanctions.
  • ECB President Draghi has said that if the Euro gets any stronger monetary policy will intervene. There may be a whiff of 1992 about such bravado - and what if the ECB eases and nothing happens (see the yen for details)?
  • European officials are preparing the "test" part of the banking stress tests this week (the "stress" part is generally assumed to be a token gesture). Meanwhile the Eurogroup head has suggested that Greece might need another bailout (surprise at that statement is, perhaps, limited).
  • US retail sales are the main data release today, with expectations for an improvement after the weather imposed winter hibernation. Tarullo of the Fed is also scheduled to speak.

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