Follow Paul Donovan

Inflation up and down

| Tags: Paul Donovan

  • One of the credit rating agencies reduced its credit outlook for Turkey, causing a wobble for the lira. One of the credit rating agencies (possibly the same one, possibly not) raised its outlook for Portugal, causing not much to happen.
  • The Euro focus today is likely to be inflation, with German CPI for March unchanged from the initial estimate, but Spanish CPI quite possibly going to sink into negative territory. Cue media hysteria over the dark threat of deflation.
  • Chinese CPI picked up in March, as expected. A vice governor of the PBoC was suggesting that there was no need for economic stimulus. This is very probably true, but on the other hand the opinion of the PBoC is pretty irrelevant to whether stimulus happens or not.
  • US PPI inflation is seen very moderate, with subdued energy prices holding the headline figure to a 0% change on the month. The Michigan preliminary sentiment figures for April as forecast below consensus, but only a little softer and not a cause for concern.

Listen to the audio version of this briefing.