Follow Paul Donovan


| Tags: Paul Donovan

  • EU leaders meet in Brussels with the full dignity of an "emergency session" to discuss events in the Ukraine and the possibility of sanctions. For investors it is sanctions that matter most, and of course decisions around sanctions are a complex interplay of events in the Ukraine and domestic considerations in Europe and the US.
  • The Bank of England celebrates the fifth birthday of quantitative policy (perhaps there will be cake) but the MPC is not expected to offer much new information. The ECB is also seen holding policy unchanged, with recent improvements in economic data sufficient to keep deflation fears in check.
  • There were three US Fed presidents speaking overnight giving a range of views but all focusing on rate hikes in the first half of 2015. The Beige Book of economic anecdote blamed pretty much everything that has gone wrong in the US in the last two months on the weather.
  • Ahead we have US unit labour cost and productivity data (unit labour costs are expected to keep on falling). This is not a near term market mover but relevant to medium term policy decisions. On the subject of the medium term, our US team have revised up their 2015 GDP estimate to 3.2% on the back of a stronger capital spending story.
Listen to the audio version of this briefing.