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Ukrainian impact

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  • Events in the Ukraine have escalated to the point where they have an economic impact outside of the region. Threatening to cancel the G8 is not the economic impact. Sanctions against Russia, particularly if they include financial or banking system sanctions, could be significant.
  • Other issues from the Ukraine are focused on commodity markets. Any escalation of the situation might threaten Ukrainian grain supplies. It is also worth noting that half of Russia's gas exports to Europe pass through the Ukraine.
  • Away from geopolitics we have manufacturing sentiment from the Euro area today. The headline is expected to point to a slightly slower pace of expansion, and France is still expected to signal contraction (although the evidence to date is that France is not, in fact, contracting).
  • Chinese manufacturing sentiment clung into expansion territory by its fingertips with a 50.2 reading (the data is affected by lunar new year of course). Service sector sentiment remained relatively strong. In Japan the MoF capital spending survey was OK at 4%, within which service sector capex lagged.

Listen to the audio version of this briefing.