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Slightly stronger in the States

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  • German Finance minister Schaeuble told the Handelsblatt (with characteristic optimism) that the crisis in the Euro area is not yet over. More reform is needed, apparently (very true, but implementing it rather than just saying it might be more constructive).
  • US President Obama's inaugural asset allocation call is not going well, as Russian equities surpassed the level where he issued his sell recommendation. The Fed is doing its best to support Treasuries, however, with Bullard saying Fed Funds could be below normal even if the economy is normal.
  • US Q4 GDP data will be revised today, and we expect better service sector spending will raise the number to 2.8% (annualised). Another couple of Fed speakers will be making remarks - Pianalto and Evans are scheduled.
  • French consumer sentiment is due (subject to the relative overreaction that all sentiment data is, but possibly improving). Euro M3 money supply will indicate how the monetary transmission mechanism is faring, and UK retail sales are due.

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