Follow Paul Donovan

Emerging threats?

| Tags: Paul Donovan

Ukraine's referendum result was in favour of joining Russia (no surprise). Russia has recognised the result (no surprise). The US and EU have not recognised the result (no surprise). Sanctions are now the issue, with EU foreign ministers meeting.

  • China has widened the band in which the renminbi trades from +/- 1% to +/- 2%. This follows a modest depreciation that seemed to target speculators by introducing an element of uncertainty, and should perhaps be viewed as an extension of that policy.
  • The Euro area publishes CPI, forecast at 0.8% yoy - some way from the "2% ceiling but we want to be near 2%" ECB target. We do not see the ECB reacting as a reaction would be a signal of concern that could damage sentiment. France's Le Pen reiterated her desire to exit the Euro.
  • US industrial production data is forecast at a relatively strong 0.4% as the economy bounces back from some of the weather induced weakness at the start of the year. Market reaction is likely to be muted by anticipation of this week's Federal Reserve meeting.

Listen to the audio version of this briefing.