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Straws in the economic wind

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  • German final GDP is not likely to be terribly interesting for markets, being a final number. Yesterday's ifo confidence data did suggest that contagion from the one or two local difficulties in selected emerging markets was having little impact on German economic activity.
  • France is offering consumer confidence data, although the tone of confidence data in general in France has tended to be weaker than the reported real economic activity, so perhaps the numbers should be treated with caution. Italy should publish retail sales data, and might also get a government today.
  • The US is giving us the Richmond Fed survey of manufacturing sentiment - the Dallas equivalent yesterday did again report the consequences of weather on sentiment, and today's data is likely to be similarly impacted.
  • The National Association of Business Economists survey of economist opinion (always a riveting read) showed a clear majority saying the Fed's policy was just right, but a noticeable minority categorising it as too loose. This may be pertinent as the debate heats up about US spare capacity and how quickly to tighten in 2015.

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