Follow Paul Donovan

Exports and policy

| Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The Bank of Japan concludes its meeting after soft Q4 GDP data (UBS revised down 2014 GDP estimates a fraction, on softer export growth). However, no policy change is expected yet - a weaker yen may do more harm than good, and there is the consumption tax increase to await.
  • European finance ministers meet (with a caretaker for Italy, which has temporarily misplaced its government). The Eurogroup yesterday told Greece it would have to wait for its debt restructuring until after the European parliamentary elections.
  • The UK has a spate of inflation figures out, but related to consumer and producer prices and not to house prices (so they may not tell us that much about the near term timing of Bank of England policy, as it seems consumer prices are not the immediate focus.
  • US data is pretty quiet. We have the TICS capital flows (not a set of statistics noted for their precision or value) and the NAHB housing market index. The NAHB data could well be weather distorted, but any sense of regional variations might help disaggregate the weather impact.

Listen to the audio version of this briefing.