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Divergent economic experiences

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  • The persistent weakness of the Japanese economy (in the wake of negative revisions to Q3 data, in defiance of market expectation) has led to a political response. PM Abe is declaring it is all an illusion and everything is fine. His advisers are hinting at larger stimulus measures.
  • UK consumers showed surprising strength in November, according to the British Retail Consortium data, overcoming disinflation forces from food retail. Industrial production and manufacturing output data are expected to improve.
  • Trade data from France and Germany are expected, in the wake of the disappointment around import data into China yesterday. The Euro area data should be flattered by the price effects of a weaker currency.
  • US Fed Speakers yesterday continued to hint (none too subtly) at a mid 2015 rate increase. Today there is the release of small business confidence from the NFIB -data to be treated with some caution, but which should establish the broader nature of the US economic recovery.

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