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Easing into the start of the week

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  • Chinese export and imports came out weaker than expected. There are currency effects on the export figures. China reports trade in dollar terms, but it will export to the Euro area in Euros. The strong dollar will reduce the value but not the volume of China's exports to the Euro area, Japan etc.
  • The Eurogroup of finance ministers meet. No one cares. Italy Spain and Portugal are all on holiday. German industrial production is due, but it is October data. Liikanen of the ECB speaks, and with divisions in the governing council a focus, the remarks may be important.
  • The Bank of England's Weale is speaking. Markets are uncertain over the timing of the next phase of BoE tightening (we have tighter quantitative and regulatory policy already), but speculation ahead of Christmas retail and credit data is likely to be muted.
  • The US continues to bask in the warm afterglow of the employment report. Retail sales are due this week, and markets are starting to think along the lines of 'jobs, income, spending, growth'. Lockhart of the Fed is scheduled to speak.

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