Follow Paul Donovan

Work, shop, repeat

| Tags: Paul Donovan

  • US employment report Friday is a matter of global importance. The US consumer is leading the global recovery, and the US consumer's willingness to spend money they don't have on things they don't need is in large part down to employment and employment security.
  • We expect a strong report today with a 230,000 increase in non-farm payrolls, a 0.2% increase in average earnings and a drop in unemployment to 5.7%. Consumer credit should also improve. The trade balance will be flattered by the lower oil price.
  • Divisions in the ECB governing council may have prevented Mr Draghi being as dovish as he wanted to be, hence the "wait and see" approach to additional stimulus. Newswire reports have, however, provided counter-stories of stimulus plans, creating currency volatility.
  • UK inflation expectations are due. With food prices falling amidst price competition and oil prices falling because of global pressures, inflation expectations are likely to be modest. Consumers tend to think that food and fuel is all there is in the CPI basket.

Listen to the audio version of this briefing.