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Disagreement? What disagreement?

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  • The ECB is not expected to change policy today, so the attention is on the press conference. The divisions in the ECB council are obvious to everyone, so Mr Draghi seems set to a) deny divisions exist and b) aggressively spin his side of the divide, i.e. dovish policy.
  • The Bank of England also meets, and is similarly expected not to change policy today. The Bank has to balance the temporary low inflation consequences of a supermarket price war with the possibility that complacent consumers are starting to releverage.
  • The US awaits Friday's employment report with bated breath. In the meantime we have a little more Fed speak (Brainard, again). The tendency of Fed speakers has been to downplay the oil price impact and in consequence be a little more hawkish than the market.
  • Japan has no economics, but it does have some politics of interest. Opinion polls suggest that Prime Minister Abe's coalition may achieve a "super majority" in the 14 December election. Markets would likely interpret that as being pro-reform.

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