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Democracy in action

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  • A minority of the US electorate head to the polls to decide the US mid-term elections. The final outcome may not be known until January (with recounts and court cases), although the substance should be known by Thursday morning London time.
  • Market interest is whether the Democrats retain the Senate seats to form a blocking minority (or a majority), and whether the presumed Republican majority in the House is large enough to reduce the influence of the Tea Party caucus. The balance matters ahead of yet another debt ceiling debate next year.
  • US economic data continues to be relatively robust. The Fed's Senior Loan Officers' survey indicated easing business credit conditions. The ISM export orders were weaker, but that may reflect currency moves rather than volume moves. Trade data is due today.
  • Euro area producer price inflation is due, expected to show flat prices in month on month terms. Price data has somewhat heightened attention as investors ponder the ECB's policy options (whether the ECB is quite so alarmed is another matter).

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