Follow Paul Donovan

Oil down 22% to 23% this year

| Tags: Paul Donovan

  • OPEC did nothing, spectacularly, as expected. The oil market reacted, in a way that rather undermines the rational markets hypothesis. Oil prices are now down around 22% to 23% this year (in Euro or Yen terms, avoiding the impact of the stronger dollar on oil prices).
  • Euro flash CPI is due. Oil accounts for around 3% of the European economy - through direct effects (petrol etc.) and indirect effects (transport costs for clothing, fertiliser for food). A rough rule of thumb would suggest that the oil price decline has reduced Euro CPI 0.7% overall this year, therefore.
  • We have activity data from Germany, France and Italy. German retail sales should hold up - not with the hedonism of the US consumer, of course, but OK. France is also expected to have positive consumption, but less robust. Italian unemployment is seen unchanged.
  • The comprehensive UK land registry house price data should report house price growth that is above sustainable levels (at over 7% rising house price to income or to GDP). Switzerland votes this weekend on the plan to force the SNB to purchase gold.

Listen to the audio version of this briefing.