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Sic transit gloria Abenomics?

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  • In the wake of the weaker third quarter data we have revised our Japanese GDP numbers. We now see 0.4% growth this year (was 1.1%). The 2015 forecast is unchanged, but assuming a supplementary budget in response to this outcome we have revised up 2016 GDP.
  • The US is of course away, giving thanks by shopping. The evidence of the US retail sector is of an improvement in hiring, and some increase in retail wages. This may add to inflation in 2015, as retailers have pent up cost pressures that have not yet been passed on to consumers.
  • The Euro area has M3 money supply which is expected to show the continued absence of much of a money multiplier effect (poor bank lending). Consumer and corporate confidence is also due, and some of the national data has been a little stronger than expected this month.
  • OPEC meets on oil production, but the markets are not anticipating any change in the wake of signals from the preliminary discussion.

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