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Sentiment signals (sort of signals)

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  • The Fed minutes discussed the nature of tightening next year (the implicit assumption is that there will be rate rises next year of course), but there was some discussion of the dangers of deflation as well. On that, today's CPI is likely to be distorted down by gasoline price decline.
  • Chinese PMI business sentiment "weakened" to 50.0. For those minded to look on the dark side of life this is a signal of weaker economic activity and impending concerns in the Asian region. In the real world, it is a minor move in a Chinese sentiment statistic not noted for its pinpoint accuracy.
  • By way of contrast, Japanese export data was strong. This is a nominal number and reflects the weaker yen (which has raised the yen price of Japanese export without directly impacting volumes). However, as exports to Asia are more likely to be invoiced in yen, the data there may reflect better demand.
  • Euro business sentiment data should be indicating a slow pace of growth - as ever France indicating a contraction that has not happened. The UK has retail sales figures - we know the UK consumer has more income, and credit deleverage has eased, so this may be worth a glance.

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