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Coordinated hawkish minutes?

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  • Japan's unsurprising surprise general election has been announced. The politics of this will matter to markets because this has been cast as a validation of Prime Minister Abe's attempts to get economic reform (reforms having rather obviously stalled of late).
  • France's economy minister has been rather critical of the EU Commission's EUR300bn investment plan, calling for genuine, real money stimulus - so long as the stimulus is EU money, not French money of course. The stumbling block is that EU money tends to mean "German money".
  • The Bank of England minutes for the November meeting are due. This meeting had been thought a possible time for a rate increase at one stage, but concerns about the Euro area (among other things) delayed that. How much hawkishness remains will be interesting.
  • The US Federal Reserve also offers its minutes, and its October meeting was marked by a move towards the hawkish side of things (the dissent was a dove). With yesterday's producer price inflation somewhat higher than expected, perhaps markets should start to re-evaluate US rate expectations.

Listen to the audio version of this briefing.