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Taking money out, putting money in

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  • The US returns from holiday but does not have the decency to offer markets any real data of interest to make up from its absence. Instead we have media speculation about a further reduction in bond buying at next week's FOMC meeting, an event that markets already expect.
  • The US may be reducing its liquidity injections but the Peoples' Bank of China has decided to increase its liquidity (the lunar new year is a strong incentive of course). Interest rates have fallen over 100bp in response.
  • The UK has the Bank of England's lending survey. The Bank is keen to encourage loans to small businesses while reducing the support it has been offering for mortgage lending, and no doubt officials will be searching the data for signs of improving business credit (as a lead indicator to capital spending).
  • German ZEW business conditions are due - but Germany is not really the problem in the Euro area which slightly diminishes the interest around these numbers. The UK CBI business conditions data are also scheduled.

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